Scattered storms capable of producing severe wind gusts and large hail are expected along the central High Plains. A few instances of 2+ inch diameter hail and significant severe gusts are possible.
Along the OK-KS border, scattered thunderstorms are expected todevelop along a frontal boundary this afternoon. Mixed-layer CAPE of2000-2500 J/kg will be in place, along with 15-20 kts of northerlymid-level flow. Isolated stronger multicell storms or small clusterswill be capable of strong/severe gusts through early evening.
A cold front will move east today across portions of Lower MI and the northern OH Valley. A mid-level impulse within the westerlies will move across the area this afternoon and contribute modest large-scale ascent. Somewhat stronger flow with this impulse, combined with pockets of moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg) will support multicell clusters this afternoon capable of producing isolated severe wind gusts.
Scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon in association with an eastward-moving cold front. Although instability should remain rather modest (approaching 1000 J/kg), strong westerly mid-level flow will result multicell and possibly transient supercell storms moving quickly east. Damaging gusts will be the primary severe hazard.
Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast by the National Hurricane Center to weaken and become post tropical tonight while moving north/northeast across NC/eastern VA (see latest NHC forecasts for details). Across eastern NC today, isolated low-topped supercells may develop within a weakly unstable atmosphere. Although low-level shear will not be particularly strong given the weakening nature of the tropical cyclone, it may prove sufficient for a couple tornadoes, especially with any sustained storm that can develop within areas of greater diurnal heating/instability.